Effect of Brexit on the ‘Special Relationship’ Between the UK and US

Politics

‘The
UK cannot retain its “special relationship” with the United States whilst being
semi-detached from the European Union’

“Success is the ability
to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm” ‘Sir Winston
Churchill’[1]

The United Kingdom (UK) has no closer ally than the United States (US), and the British foreign policy underlines our close coordination with the United States. These close relations were considerably strengthened by the United Kingdom’s alliance with the US during both World Wars, in the Korean conflict, in the Persian Gulf War, and more recently in Iraq and in Afghanistan conflicts, additionally through its part as a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This has contributed to forming a special relationship with the US. Within this essay the ‘special relationship’ is defined as a political or technical term between the UK and the United States governments[2]. Semi dethatched is defined as no longer being a member of the European Union (EU) following referendum. During 2016 a major event was the referendum in the UK on 23 June to withdraw from the European Union, which resulted in the British population voting to leave the EU. Following the announcement it posed a number of uncertainties, one of these was our ‘Special Relationship’ with the US.

In answering the question of
the UK cannot retain its “Special Relationship” with the US whilst being semi-detached
from the EU’ there are 3 key areas that this essay will look at are political,
military and economy. I have considered
these points because, the two countries continue to have a number of
fundamental common interests in global political aspects, economic stability,
military cohesion and with these structures they are able to cooperate closely
as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. This essay will consider the implications on
both sides of the Atlantic and argue that the UK can retain its ”special
relationship’ with the US whilst being semi detached from the EU, others may
feel this is a failure by leaving the EU.

Is the “Special Relationship” amid Britain and
the US fundamentally damaged? It’s an old alliance based on shared histories
and values, one that has developed the cornerstone of British foreign policy
after two world wars[3].
The element of the special relationship is nothing new, it has
been well established since Winston Churchill coined the phrase “special
relationship” during a lecture tour of American universities in 1945 and his
words are certainly resonate today. The
specialness of the two countries’ relationship has endured, although it could
be seen as cool at times, this has been particularly difficult when the personal
relationship between the US President and the British Prime Minster wasn’t so
strong. Whilst the degree of closeness
between the nations is and has been largely determined by judgments of joint
political, trade subsidies, military cohesion and the personal factor have
continued to have a strong influence.
Some may say that the imbalance between the relative power between the
two nations, may have possibly been one-sided and occasionally the UK has been
made to appear rather subservient. In
the eyes of both nations, this was evident when the then Prime Minister Tony
Blair was seen to freely take the acceptance of the Bush regimes’ polices over
Iraq. This resulted in a certain amount of criticism of the British government
in the UK and many felt that Britain is tied to closely to the US. In 2016 there was two main political events
that were headline news, the first being Britain voted to leave the EU in June
after 43 years of increasingly ambivalent membership was greeted with a mixture
of defiance, fear and jubilation across the continent. The second big political
event being on the early hours on 9 November, when Donald Trump took to the
stage in New York to declare his victory as the new President of the US. Some said a political novice, however Mr
Trump along the way had defeated the most experienced presidential candidate in
decades. The public opinion of the
special relationship between the UK and US is being further divided amongst
both populations; this was evident and highlighted during the Presidential
campaign in November 2016. Throughout
the campaign President Trump campaigned on “making America great again’.
In January 2017 Theresa May agreed to “renew the special
relationship for this new age” when she met with president Donald Trump. MPs, including a
number of May’s own Conservative party, had expressed their personal reservations
about May’s visit given Trump’s previous controversial comments and stances on
a range of issues[4]. The UK and the US closely work and frequently
consult on foreign policy issues and global problems and share major foreign
and security policy objectives. Worryingly as we look to the future there are
many unknowns, on both sides of the Atlantic and the UK post Brexit will drive
to sustain global influence and without the EU the UK could find themselves
largely dependant on the US. The ‘Special relationship’ may well be further
tested and could mean a much wider separation than that just of the EU. This no
doubt would be devastating for the UK politically, militarily and more
importantly financially. This role for the UK as a given global partner to the
US is far more likely to survive following the decision to leave the EU than
will the UK’s which maybe used as a diplomatic bridge between the US and
Europe.

Since 1917, well before the ‘special relationship’ was ever
mentioned or quoted by Winston Churchill, the UK and US have collaborated to
triumph in two world wars, two Gulf wars, and during the Cold War. During the 1980s, the mutual support provided
by this alliance has developed to the success of unilateral American and
British military actions against Libya and Argentina, both of these actions
were resisted by other European allies. Throughout the 1980s, the conclusive
decade of the Cold War, the elimination of Soviet SS-20 missiles from Europe
and the removal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan occurred as a consequence of
Anglo-American initiatives that were either opposed or disregarded on the
continent. Ever since the well coordinated
terrorist attack in 2001, that made headlines all over the world and became known
as 9/11, the UK has remained beside the US in Iraq and Afghanistan as its most
right-hand and reliable ally in the war on terror[5]. These joint military efforts have been based
upon much of an

arrangement of strategic interests with the similar political and
legal culture and values with a world wide view. Also the effective use of intelligence
sharing and close practical battlefield collaboration, has been made possible
by the shared use of military equipment and technology. Both the UK and US have agreed that both defence departments, will now continue
to search for increased interoperability across the spectrum of military
operations. The US Defence Strategic Guidance[6]
and UK Strategic Defence and Security Review[7]
recently reached many common conclusions, including the need for increased
cooperation in dealing with the threats we face. We are committed to working together, and
with other close allies, wherever possible. The maritime commitment has
been strengthened with Secretary Panetta and Secretary Hammond recently signed
a Statement of Intent directing the US and Royal Navy to seek ways to better
developed aircraft carrier doctrine and maritime power projection capabilities[8]. On the Land environment both the UK and US
continue to develop very similar initiatives in order to enhance the already
close ground force relationship however increased training opportunities in
Europe and exchanges in the US. As close
Allies, the US and UK continue to host each other’s forces in order to conduct
training and be prepared to deploy when necessary, and in future conduct current
operations.

The US presently has over 9,000 personnel stationed in the UK, primarily
on joint Royal Air Force bases such as RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath in
Suffolk, where US regiments conduct fighter, transport, logistics and aerial
refuelling operations. The Joint Analysis Centre at RAF Molesworth is a
example of the cooperation, where British analysts and US monitor the world’s
trouble areas together. The four US services continue to send exchange
personnel to work with the UK armed forces, and exchange both senior and junior
military officers in British defence schools.
The UK currently has around 800 British personnel in the US. In the Air
the UK is a partner in the development of the Joint Strike Fighter, which is a
unique program with each country’s defence industries sharing the development
of a common future platform that will ensure the US and UK, and other partners
posses the latest technology in air superiority for the next generation. Our Military cohesion was extended even further in 2014, when the
UK and US signed a new agreement that was critical to Brittan’s Trident nuclear
weapons system, was signed by British and US officials, the news stated that
the 1958 UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement has been updated. This new amendment that will last for 10
years, one which will permit the transfer between the US and UK of classified
nuclear information concerning nuclear technology, atomic weapons and controlled
nuclear material and critical information.
At the time the President Obama stated “intends to continue to maintain
viable nuclear forces into the foreseeable future” he also mentioned that it
was in America’s interest, to continue to help the UK “in maintaining a
credible nuclear deterrent”[9]. The continued close security cooperation
between the UK and US is probably going to continue, particularly in
intelligence sharing. The EU has been traditionally excluded from aspects of
the conversation of intelligence which has taken place between the English
speaking “Five Eyes” states US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand[10]. Evidence and history has shown that the UK
and US stand shoulder to shoulder with each other
in order to deter and if necessary, defeat the threats to our common way of
life. The future does indicate a number
of new opportunities to strengthen this relationship further. With any new
strategic circumstances, come new reasons to cooperate. We certainly cannot
afford to miss these opportunities. With both countries recognising that
many of the problems that we both face can’t be solved alone.

That shoulder to shoulder stance, was put in the spotlight and made
headlines across the world, when on the 23 June 2016 the decision for the UK to
exit from the EU was a clear demonstration that history is not linear. The following day the previous prime mister
David Cameroon resigned and the UK pound plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost
significant ground, but then the pound rallied past the previous February
levels and the FTSE closed on a weekly high of 2.4%, this was it’s best
performance in 4 months on what many speculated would be a future of economic
gloom. The previous US president Obama
decided we ‘wouldn’t be at the back of the queue’ after all, and that or
‘special relationship’ was still strong.

Following the Brexit vote in June 2016, this
will now allow the UK to charter a new course as a sovereign, it will become a
free nation and one which will be able to implement free trade agreements with
countries across the world once the UK exits the EU in 2019. On the 29 March 2016, the UK changed its
history by submitting a six-page letter from Mrs May triggering Article 50,
which was handed to European Council President Donald Tusk[11]. When the UK leaves the EU in
2019 this will open the opportunities for the future of a free trade agreement
between the UK and US. Currently the UK has the fifth largest economy and the
US the largest in the world respectively.
Just seven days after taking office Teresa May was the first foreign
leader to visit Donald Trump after being elected for president[12].
History has shown us that in the past the economic polices of the UK and the US
has been seen as a similarity since the 1970s. The UK economic growth has held
up netter than expected in the 12 months following the Brexit vote, in the
longer term, the UK economy show continue to grow to around 2%, following
Brexit. Currently when it comes to UK exports to a single nation, the US is the
UK’s largest export destination with a current market worth some £3.5 billion.
Equally, the US is the UK’s third biggest after China and Germany, procuring
some £2.9billion of products form the US.
In my mind there does appear to be two key thoughts that Brexit is
having much less of an effect and impact in the US. Firstly the relative
isolation of the US economy, as only 15% of GDP is related to international trade.
Secondly, in the last 18 months investors in the US were anticipating a rise in
the interest rate, which would have had a negative impact. Following Brexit and
the global uncertainty caused by the outcome, the Federal Reserve System put
the increase on hold. This has allowed
the US markets plenty of opportunity to go even higher[13]. For the future the
UK and the US should persist exploring areas where the alignment of bilateral
regulatory systems can lead to new business opportunities and reduce costs of
unnecessary regulation. The UK and US
Governments should also increase collaboration in higher education, especially
between our world-leading universities, this would allow for our countries to
build on their joint leadership role and pull together on the great economic
potential linked to it. The UK and the
US economies are described by large and growing services sectors and should
explore ways of enhancing trade in services, particularly in business services,
which are key input for global supply chains[14].

In
summary, If Britain’s world influence weakens, and the US continues to change
its priorities away from Europe to other more surging geopolitical challenges,
the special relationship could face a low-spirited future. The UK’s
valuableness to the US could increase if the EU were to acquire a much more
active global position. It is true trade deals will be forged with the US
following the semi-detached status from the EU, and clearly no longer part of
the EU economy. There is no doubt It will have a much weaker negotiating power
and gravitational pull than previously held, thus relying on the proven
’special relationship’ in order to take the alliance forward and beyond 2019.

The
‘Special Relationship’ has been the world’s most powerful bilateral partnership
for over 70 years and is fundamentally important to both London and Washington.
It has played a vital role in the defence of the free world since World War II
and has been instrumental in advancing economic freedom across the globe.
The UK and US has built a ‘special
relationship’, which was formed and built well before any mention of the UK
leaving the EU. The UK can
retain its ‘special relationship’ by working closely with the US, we continue
to set an example for others and will persist to deliver a basis for further
collaboration with our Allies and partners around the world, which include
through NATO, in the future years to come.

Bibliography

http://transatlanticrelations.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/HFAC-US-UK-testimony-Feb-1-2017-dh-final.pdf

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/planning-post-brexit-britain-s-place-global-stage

https://uk.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/policy-history/

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/03/why-britain-should-end-special-relationship-us

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/theresa-mays-article-50-letter-what-she-said-and-what-she-meant

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/2016-review-world-events-changed-history/

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436687/brexit-us-british-military-cooperation

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/14/joint-fact-sheet-us-and-uk-defense-cooperation

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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/575378/national_security_strategy_strategic_defence_security_review_annual_report_2016.pdf