(Nottinghamshire Greenhouse
Gas Emission’s Case)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The role played by
Nottinghamshire in sustainable development is evident based on the laurels it
is getting from different organizations like the Queens Award and European
Union through her Remourban pilot project.
Notwithstanding, there is need to continually review city performance against
this available baseline information on greenhouses emissions and general environmental
management. From the baseline
information, the highest sources of greenhouse gases emission in the county to
forcing climate change emissions arises from buildings, transportation, street
lighting and waste. This affects air quality due to the mix of carbon dioxide.
These missions have severe consequences on the natural environment, human
health and pose a significant threat to
future species within the local counties and the nation in general. Future
emission scenarios are drawn up in the report to help the hypothesis of present
strategies to be taken to ensure that emissions are reduced to the barest minimum. In addition, pragmatic targets for
emission reduction by 80% by 2050, 60% by the midterm (2030) and 40% at the
interim are set with the aim of keeping emission as low as possible other than
a business as usual approach activities in the county are contained in this
report. In the light of this, the Nottinghamshire authority, local industries and
academic institutions can provide a niche
stakeholder forum for synergy in creating a culture that promotes
sustainability. Green and mitigation approaches through collaboration,
monitoring, and enforcement, low carbon installation and switching to
sustainable urban transport, a collection
of waste for a more efficient recycling, alternative energy generation from
wind, solar and geothermal; are possible sustainability practices. Nottinghamshire
can help in sustaining these approaches through policy effective communication
strategies through group meetings, organizing conferences and workshops, online
webinars, social media, use of the mainstream electronic and mass media and
emails/ letters to appropriate stakeholders

1       INTRODUCTION

Climate change impacts have remained unstable and continued to take
toll on the welfare of most societies
around the world (developed and developing countries alike). Geological and
atmospheric records have continued to reveal dramatic fluctuations in global
mean temperature over multidecadal timescale. Over the years, the earth has
continued to warm unexpectedly as a result man’s
influence (anthropogenic effect). Investigations revealed that global mean
temperature has increased in addition to the rise in sea level and gross
reduction in snow cover and declining glaciers in the North Pole. The overall
effect arises from the cumulative impact of
human activities such as transportation, industrial manufacturing, energy
generation, agricultural activities, and
poor management of waste and forest wealth. Following a business as usual
approach, these changes are bound to continue and the impacts will be felt
across urban and rural cities across the world. These could have a detrimental impact on air and water quality leading
to the possible spread of diseases and
complicated sanitation management for urban cities. Critical infrastructure
could be subjected to high risks and lives could be lost in numbers. Climate
impacts are also argued to exacerbate migration and
mass movement of people in search of resources which could become very
scarce around the world. Scarce resources possess severe danger as a struggle for survival could trigger hate and
intolerable attitudes in local and commercial communities across the globe.  This calls for pragmatic actions by
international, national and local governments and the private sector to emancipate actions towards climate change
mitigation.

The desire to improve the
environmental management system geared towards mitigation has continued to gain
relevance around the world in recent times to promote an integrated society
committed to improving local habits that
could force climate change. These management systems are combined strategies needed
to ensure that local conditions in different societies though may differ but are properly understood and
replicated in other local effort communities. These strategies are aimed at
ensuring that long-term healthy climate
system is maintained and if possible, communities can live with some spatial impacts already in place. Local
authorities and County Councils are developing climate mitigation strategies that
keep carbon emission emissions as low as
possible through a reduction in domestic
and institutional carbon footprints. Some of these strategies include:

1. Data gathering and
   analysis; this involves the collection of local emission scenarios information
   through stakeholder consultation and partnership; including rural dwellers and
   urban environmental managers. This information is evaluated to underpin the
   likely emission loopholes and possible ways of addressing them in line with
   sustainable development plans. Data gathering and evaluation also help local
   communities to discover aspects of
   vulnerability and proposal of appropriate adaptation mechanisms; through participatory action plans.
2. Policy drivers; different
   city councils have developed local policies for climate mitigation. For example,
   London city council set overall reduction of Co2 emission of 60% by 2025 and
   expect that local organisations and London borough will work towards the target
   plan by monitoring households emissions
   scenarios, designing efficient and sustainable transport systems, use of
   renewable materials and energy consumption. This policy has been replicated
   across many cities in England and across the UK with each council developing
   own implementation strategies. A typical
   example is the SMART CITY development phenomenon where IT systems are used to
   monitor energy consumption and transport emission footprint.
3. Economic Assistance;
   regional governments such as the European Union currently support local
   councils in developing SMART CITIES. These cities are to serve as models for improved energy efficiency in sustainable
   buildings and the generally built systems,
   support new cultures of urban transport models, and integration of ICT in
   infrastructural management. The EU economic assistance through her REMOURBAN
   project aimed to excite citizens into active actors of the sustainable renovation of local cities and
   foster the market for smart cities.

In the light of this, this
report will seek to understand how Nottinghamshire County Council can improve
its commitment towards climate change mitigation and lesson that can be learnt.
It will use the baseline information from the earlier assessment to evaluate how
it can generate different scenarios that can inform climate change mitigation
through the reduction of carbon and other greenhouse gases emission. These
strategies will be highlighted in the short, medium and long-term view to
ensure that the council aligns its objectives to regional and international
climate change emission reduction strategies
as proposed by the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). 

2.      SUMMARY OF THE BASELINE GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY  

This section summarizes the Nottinghamshire anthropogenic climate induce emission baseline data shown in Figure 1. As per 2005 and 2006 climate change results, buildings contributed the most to the greenhouse gas emissions at 59% of total emissions in Nottinghamshire. The buildings had contributed 64800 tons of greenhouse gases. In addition, street lighting, transport and waste contributed 11700, 25184, and 8640 tons respectively per year. The total emissions were at 110,324 tons per year. Particularly, most emissions in the UK come from the transport sector. Cars and other freight vehicles contribute to these emissions (Clegg, Mancarella 2018). 

2.2       Future Emissions Scenarios (Not Business as Usual)

The population at Nottinghamshire is
growing every day. With time, the increase in the level of Population is demanding more energy
for socio-economic activities to sustain their survival. On the other hand, there is an increase
in the population pressure on the available resources as the number of firms continue to increase.
The buildings not only increase energy use, but also reduce the availability of land
under vegetation that is important in carbon sequestration – balancing the
amount of carbon emissions in the air (Rosenvald,
Rosenvald 2017). As the number of housing
units increase, the demand for the social amenities like street lighting,
schools and hospitals increase proportionately (Clegg, Mancarella
2018). On the other hand,
demand for goods and services increases within the region leading to an
increase in the level of transportation to meet the demand for local goods. In
fact, as the population welfare continues to improve the demand for energy
increases within Nottinghamshire with the high potential for emission increase.
Thereafter, more residents may purchase vehicles for mobility in accessing
different services and products within the county council. It is evident that
climate change is attributed to a vicious cycle, which, if not well monitored
can affect the implementation of climate-change-mitigation policies (Ojha, Pattnaik et
al. 2018). Such activities require
proactive strategies that may lead to energy saving measures in
Nottinghamshire. In light of this, Nottinghamshire has been able to improve its
the Robin Hood Energy initiative that has improved the use of cleaner energy at
low cost. This is important in changing business mentality to allow adoption of
cleaner practices.

2.3       Demand for Sustainable Resources

Organisations are demanding processes that can improve the performance of different processes. This has bolstered the implementation of the ISO 14001 standards that can improve the performance of different organisations in reducing loss of resources in production (Heras-Saizarbitoria 2018). This also leads to the production of sustainable products (International Organization for Standardization, 2015, p. 2). It is against this background that the demands for products like the solar panels are gaining use in Nottinghamshire. These are meant to make use of the solar energy. These products can guarantee Nottinghamshire an opportunity to reduce the level of greenhouse gas emissions (My Nottingham News, 2015). In a bid to improve the organisational contribution in the use of resources, organisations are improving the use of their resources to add extra electricity they make to the national grid (Hall & Roelicha, 2016, p. 297). This may improve the supply of electricity, though on the contrary, it leads to an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases. Thus, there is the need to adopt products that use sustainable and renewable resources like the solar energy. In a bid to increase their revenues, municipalities are embracing the production of electricity. However, since the population will increase failure of solar energy to meet the demands of the population will lead to an increase in the rate of substitution of solar energy for electricity. Thus, the future demands strategies that require integration of municipalities and consumer demands (Hall & Roelicha, 2016, p. 292). This will help deliver a balanced strategy that promotes a balance between societal and environmental needs. 

The climate change
consequences have increased the rate of growth of the vegetation and nesting of
birds in Nottinghamshire. This demands an increase in the efforts of
maintenance of vegetation by the municipal (UK Climate Impacts Programme,
2011). In the coming years, the
vegetation may increase, which may increase the carbon emissions as the
municipality seeks to improve the quality of its environment. However, the
increase in vegetation presents an opportunity for the county to increase its
afforestation efforts in the acreage of its forest. In fact, there will be a
need for the municipality to increase the conservation and protection of its
forests, as they will be under encroachment as land for development becomes
scarcer. This may help reduce the greenhouse emissions as the plants utilise
the carbon in growth. Moreover, an increase in the vegetation may present
organisations in Nottinghamshire an opportunity to explore the need for a
created shared value to promote environmental sustainability, as the
environment is benign for cooperation in mitigating climate change.
Consecutively, the increase in population will not only increase the goods and
services demand but also waste associated
with consumption. Therefore, the county ought to establish structures that can
utilise the waste to meet societal needs. This can be through recycling or reuse. 

3          FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS

It is been generally argued by scientists that global temperature will soar by the end of the 21^st century (the 2100) due to anthropogenic emissions. Some argued that the world could warm up to between 1.4’C to 5.8’C. The gap between the suggested possible temperatures exists due to the earth uncertainties that lead to the planning for different temperatures scenarios. A report by the IPCC identifies four (4) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to estimate future emission scenarios that showed how the earth will warm by 2100. The rapid mitigation (RCP 2.6) is shown to keep warming above pre-industrial epoch up to 2.3’C by 2100 while runaway emission scenario (RCP 8.5) is estimated to warm the earth between 3.2 – 5.4’C by the same
period of time. See figure below.

How then will these
scenarios impact on local communities and cities is crucial to underpin the
mitigation measures that could target emission reduction.
Are there possible ways which local councils can reduce emission and
carbon footprints? What lesson can be learnt from present sustainability
programmes and they point towards a less warm
world by 2100. Council actions are
required to plan but for different temperatures scenarios which scientist
depends on; which describes a business as usual case and emission reduction and
sustainability strategy’s scenarios. With this in mind, this report aimed at producing an emission reduction for Nottingham
Local Council need to be more pragmatic in developing local reduction targets
base on these scenarios. In this report, a proposal is drawn up to foster three
(3) possible emission scenarios for Nottingham City, United Kingdom:

3.2       Business as usual scenario for Nottingham City:

This scenario is generated
in terms of some key indicators of growth such
as population, fossil energy prices and GDP. The projected population for
Nottingham is obtained from literature to develop relevant projections in the
context of local systems. However, the Council’s population is estimated at
325300 and projections suggest this will increase to 332,700 by 2024 and
865,000 by 2030. Going into the future beyond 2050, the city is unlikely to
witness a rise in population as compared
to other cities but the number of aged 85+ could increase significantly.
Increase in the population indicates more
energy and transport demand. The implication of this without sustainability
approaches aimed at emission reduction implies that greenhouse gases will
continue to be emitted leading to the estimated minimum temperature.  Other factors that may cause a business as
usual growth emissions include projected GDP growth is Britain take over
control of the economy and financial aids
to European countries are stopped. These finances could be further managed to
boost the economy supported by a reduction
in immigration into the city. Human attitudes at this point may need to be
properly tailored such that they don’t
impact the earth negatively.

3.3       Technical fix scenarios:

In this scenario, policies
are deemed to be implemented at local council levels for emission reduction.
Some of these policies include that: 1) 30% of cars driven in Nottingham should
be electric cars by the year 2050. This implies that car dealers in
Nottinghamshire must reduce importation of fossil energy cars by 30% and
replace same with electric cars by 2050. More so, there is a need for investment
in solar systems (PVC) by the city council in partnership with the European
Union through this could be challenged by
the Brexit issue. Households in the county need
to go off the grid by installing solar
panels on the roof of their homes to
generate green energy. These PVCs can be subsidized by the by County council or
have the cost spread for customer convenience and patronage.  Generally, Nottingham is know as a green city
because of the REMOBURN partnership; which has developed local strategies for investments in smart energy
communities with a strict focus on
district heating system and retrofitting, Low carbon transport technologies (tram links shown
below) need to be powered by solar batteries
systems. The partnership also aim to providing
local assistance for small and medium enterprises to focus on innovations.
Though there is no clear way of
monitoring these process efficiently, it is believed that some improved work
will be done to ensure that emissions are drastically
reduced.

 c.         Everything
Green scenario: Given that not all the mitigation actions taken are implemented
efficiently and effectively as proposed, this scenario suggests that there will
be 100% reduction of in local emission.
It implies that there is a substantial amount of
reduction in GHG emissions from transport, household usage and waste management
– including from agricultural practices
in the countryside.  

4.         EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS

These are
the targets that could be set by the County aimed at reducing the level of
emissions from areas that have been identified in the baseline.

4.1       Reducing Carbon Emissions by 80% come 2050

The target of 80%
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is set as the UK government long-term climate change mitigation target, and
as such it is binding on the Nottinghamshire council. There is an expected
increase in the population that has seen most property developers in the United
Kingdom improve their efforts in improving available infrastructure. This will
present new challenges and increase the carbon emissions associated with the
construction sector. In Nottinghamshire, the population increase will demand
social facilities that will require that organisations invest in social
enterprises for a sustainable society. Thus, need to ensure that every year the
county should address its infrastructural development to ensure it meets carbon
reduction targets of 80% come 2050 (Department for Environmental Food and Rural
Affairs, 2016; Committee on Climate Change, 2016).

4.2       Reducing Carbon Emission by 60% by 2030

The government expects
that the efforts of all county councils will help bring carbon emission to 60%
by the year 2030 (Department for Environmental Food and Rural Affairs, 2016). This
is a medium-term target set by the city council. It then follows that there are
sustainable practices that ensure that this target is met by 2030. 

4.3       Reduce Local Carbon Emissions by 40% by 2020

In the short term plan,
the city council aims to bring carbon emission down by 40% of 1990 level by the
year 2020. Since the rate at which regions are emitting carbon is at a rate of
3-4% there is a need to ensure that Nottinghamshire reduces its carbon
emissions by approximately 40% come 2020. This is important as it will
eliminate the effects of climate change by an extra 0.2%, ensuring that the
positive benefits are greater than the externalities (Committee on Climate
Change, 2016).

5          MEETING THE 2050 TARGET

Inorder to meet the 2050 objective of the city
council, it will require a year to year reduction of CO2 of around 2% of
current level. However, taking into account the estimated population growth in
the council, a more than 2% reduction in CO2 emission yearly will be required
to meet the 2050 target. A technical fix in the form of a substantial use of
renewable energy for meeting the growing energy demand is a sustainable
strategy. Nottingham has already developed a local utility called Robinhood, which uses incinerator heat, solar
power and waste food plants to generate electricity at cheaper rates for the
people. However, the local utility can benefit meeting the 2050 target if it
expands more in order to be able to accommodate future subscribers. The
expansion of Robinhood energy services
ensures insulation against high energy prices, low-carbon energy supply for
businesses and domestic sector. The stakeholders that need to reinforce
partnership to expand this sustainable energy delivery include the city waste
management board, Nottingham energy partnership, private investors and the city
council. Another renewable energy source
that can add to the sustainable supply is wind energy and bioenergy generation.

5.1     The Green approach to 2050 target – a secondapproach to meeting the reduction of carbon emission by 2050 is a substantial reduction in energy use. Energy use in the homes can be reduced by the use of wall insulations to reduce heat demand. Also, the use of renewable energy with local government incentives to encourage participation will be adopted. This includes lowering tax on energy generated from renewable sources.  The council can achieve this strategy through encouraging installation of building energy management system as well as efficient lighting systems. District heating or the use of combined heat and power is another strategy to ensure sustainable energy procurement and reduce carbon emission in order to meet the long-term plan of 2050. It is however difficult for the scope of this study to estimate percentage reduction when adopting these strategies. The cost of this strategy will be paid through green incentives to encourage replacement of boilers, use of green energy and the private sector through replacement of commercial lighting while the public sector finance pays for expansion of district heating.

5.2     Meeting the 2030 target – the medium-term target is to reduce carbon emission by 60% in the year 2030. Sustainable transport approach – one major sector that contributes greatly to CO2 emission is transport sector. In this approach, the Nottingham city council will liaise with all organisations to adopt a green transport policy. The policy shall begin with every organization critically evaluating the need for a staff to travel. If after evaluation there is an actual need to travel, then the greenest possible means is used. Starting with walking to work, or cycling, or use of public transportation to the use of green cars. If this sustainable transport is adopted in organisations across the county, then a significant reduction in carbon emission can be achieved.

Also, the Nottingham’s Local Transport Plan (“the plan”) has been
formulated to continue to upgrade transport networks, support sustainable
transport modes, encourage public transport and encourage more walking and
cycling. The biggest challenge, however, is funding. Just like any mega
project, the private-public partnership
is usually a better way of carrying out such projects. The expansion of the
tram network and increase in public transport system will be included in “the
plan” to curb carbon emission.

5.3     Meeting the 2020 target –in theshort term, the council shall commence the carbon emission reduction strategies by creating more awareness on the need for organisations and individuals to buy into the integrated approach to cutting carbon emission down. The council’s energy centre creates awareness through website, seminars, exhibitions, training, grant availability, energy saving measures, renewable energy information etc. The medium-term target can also be hit by behavioural changes, the use of smart meters and efficient waste disposal systems. A committee is set up to plan, manage and evaluate the integrated climate change strategies. This committee shall comprise of technical experts, private sector representatives and public sector representatives.

In
summary, as shown in the climate-related baseline
information above, energy consumption from buildings and transportation plays
an important role in the contribution to anthropogenic climate change in
Nottingham. More so, there is a high potential for population growth as the
universities continue to grow in ranking and the city being peaceful. This will
result in more demand for transport vehicles
(personal and commercial use). Therefore, the
county could make policies that emphasize
on the use of hybrid vehicles that depends on renewable fuels. On the other hand,
they can encourage firms to adopt supply management systems that reroute some
of the commercial vehicles to reduce the emission
of greenhouse gases associated with logistics management (Okuniek, Beckmann
2017). 

The
increase in population will demand more sustainable practices in architectural
designs of buildings and offices. This will help ensure that organisations are
using modern technology like Building Information Modelling that will lead to
the development of buildings that have low energy demands. This is because the
technology will allow the calculation of the expected carbon emissions that it
will add to the ecosystem before its construction (Peng, 2016, p. 462). By
2050, this may help promote sustainable living conditions that require less
energy. In fact, by 2020 the constructed buildings should meet the provisions
of the UK Government in possessing a zero carbon rate. Consecutively, these
houses should have the potential to reduce the encroachment of land. In fact,
due to the growth of the property market,
there will be more vibrant that may lead to the construction
of buildings that ignore the county provisions for safer construction that
endangers its occupants. Therefore, the need for regulation should increase to
develop safer buildings that are ecologically sustainable. 

6                    OTHER MITIGATION MEASURES 

In planning for the future
emission scenarios some mitigation measures need to be in place in the city.
Some of these include a focus on energy efficiency in residential homes and
public buildings where heating, insulation, and lighting systems are adequately
checked using technology. Policy and projects aimed at directing the efficient
use of available infrastructure and equipment and energy generation from
renewable sources of medium scale systems are
highly emphasised (Zheng, Zhang et al. 2018). Upgrade of critical and
relevant infrastructure is suggested to replace existing plants with the aim of
reducing the cost of energy as well as carbon emissions. The upgrade of systems
and replacement could further improve the resilience and resistant ability of
critical infrastructure to other impacts (Pursiainen 2017).

• In planning to execute these mitigation options, relevant partners and stakeholders need to be carried along to ensure that decision making process is transparent, coherent and holistic (Evans, Yu et al. 2018). Stakeholder participation in reducing GHG emissions has been emphasized by researchers in the energy management and argued to be the best medium in addressing community and local services partnerships (Evans, Yu et al. 2018). It is therefore crucial for Nottingham City Council to ensure that charity organisations such as Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Green Party, Local community groups etc. are called into the decision-making circle. This could eliminate the conflict of interest and improve the process of plan execution. Table one summarises actions expected by specific stakeholders for any suggested role in meeting GHG emissions mitigation targets for Nottingham City Council.

7.                COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES

Communicating future mitigation options has
challenged some organisations in the past (Sanchez, Hampson et
al. 2017, Markvica, Millonig et al. 2017). This is
because people react to climate change issues different issues depending on
their type of business, political affiliation and general beliefs regarding climate change. In broader terms, some people denied that the
future climate will change significantly due to anthropogenic
effects while some express scepticism
and sit on the fence on scientific predictions. These mix beliefs and trust are
argued to have impeded the smooth communication of adaptation and mitigation
plans toward to some segments of the public. More so, because mitigation has a direct impact on businesses such as fossil
energy vendors, transport companies and manufacturers, some opposition in
accepting the mitigation measures to achieving
the long-term targets might be very
challenging in some places (Klinsky, Brankovic
2018).

However, the focus of communication strategy differs slightly from those designed to engage sceptics and denials. The strategies in
this report suggest the communication system which local communities in the
city can use to emphasize how emission reduction targets can be transmitted to
all relevant stakeholders in the context of Nottingham City Council. These
strategies are highlighted to ensure that local communities around the city
adapt efficiently to council’s plans for
emission reduction in the mid-term (2030)
and long-term 2050.  The table below highlights some of the
relevant strategic communication opportunities that Nottingham City Council may
adopt to ensure that the message of
emission reduction gets to all stakeholders:

8.                CONCLUSION

Emissions from buildings and transport are shown as the highest sources
of greenhouse gases emissions in Nottinghamshire. However, the County is one of
the cities with strong opportunities for green systems implementation aimed at
reducing GHG emissions by 2030 and 2050
targets in the UK and Europe. To achieve this, the performance of
Nottinghamshire in environmental sustainability would depend on the role that
the community will play in influencing the general society to engage in green
attitudes (energy efficiency in buildings, effective legislation and policies framework towards emission reduction from
transport and adequate environmental management and conservation. There is need
to engage the society through suitable communication strategies with identified
stakeholders to develop sustainable practices
that may affect the environment positively in terms of energy consumption and
general environmental management. This may compel the need for sustainable
activities for the organization as the population of the city is hypothesized
to increase by 2050 and even beyond. It also requires that the management at
Nottinghamshire adopt transformative leadership qualities that align with monitoring and evaluation of the county
and firms in sustainable management practices. This makes it easier for
organisations involved in certification of firms in environmental management.
As illustrated in this report, reducing carbon emissions requires that all
stakeholders understand the importance of reducing carbon emissions that will
generate efforts to sustain eco-activities in Nottinghamshire. This is key in
promoting environmental, social and political integration that can bolster a
climate that supports long-term strategies, up to 2050 period in mitigating
emissions.        

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